Donald Trump has issued a stark warning, threatening to impose steep tariffs and escalate sanctions against Russia if Vladimir Putin fails to bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump stressed that his efforts to broker peace were actually doing Putin and his country a "tremendous favor." Earlier, Trump had expressed his willingness to negotiate a swift resolution to Russia's full-scale invasion, which commenced in February 2022.
Russia has yet to respond to Trump's assertions, but senior officials have hinted in recent days that there exists a narrow window of opportunity for Moscow to engage with the incoming US administration. Putin has repeatedly stated his openness to negotiating an end to the war, which first flared up in 2014, but insisted that Ukraine must acknowledge Russia's territorial gains, which now encompass roughly 20% of its land. Additionally, Putin has steadfastly refused to countenance Ukraine's NATO membership.
Kyiv, on the other hand, is reluctant to cede any territory, although President Volodymyr Zelensky has conceded that temporarily surrendering some occupied lands might be inevitable. During a press conference on Tuesday, Trump revealed that he would soon be in talks with Putin and suggested that further sanctions could be imminent if the Russian leader did not come to the negotiating table.
However, in his Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump doubled down on his threats: "I'm about to do Russia, whose economy is crumbling, and President Putin, a monumental favor," he penned. "Settle now and put an end to this absurd war! IT'S ONLY GOING TO DETERIORATE FURTHER. If we don't strike a deal soon, I have no choice but to impose exorbitant taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on any goods Russia sells to the United States and other participating nations."
He continued, "Let's bring an end to this war, which would have never erupted had I been President! We can take the easy route or the difficult path - and the easy route is always preferable. It's time to 'STRIKE A DEAL'."
Earlier, Russia's deputy UN ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told Reuters that the Kremlin would need clarity on Trump's terms for a ceasefire before proceeding. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that any agreement would necessitate at least 200,000 peacekeepers, and he emphasized to Bloomberg that such a force must include US troops to pose a credible deterrent to Russia.
"It can't be without the United States... Even if some European allies think it can, it won't," he stressed, adding that no one else would dare make such a move without US involvement. While Ukrainian leaders may appreciate Trump's more assertive tone - they have long maintained that Putin only understands strength - the initial reaction in Kyiv to his comments suggests that people are awaiting actions, not mere words.
Trump has yet to specify the targets or timing of additional economic penalties. Russian imports to the US have dwindled since 2022, and stringent restrictions are already in place. Currently, the primary Russian exports to the US are phosphate-based fertilizers and platinum.
On social media, Ukrainians largely responded scornfully to Trump's threats. Many deemed additional sanctions a feeble response to Russian aggression. However, the paramount question for most is what Putin is actually prepared to discuss with Ukraine during any peace negotiations.
In Moscow, some individuals perceive signs that the Kremlin may be preparing Russians to accept less than the "victory" once envisioned, which included advancing tanks all the way to the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa. TV editor Margarita Simonyan, a staunch Putin supporter, has begun advocating for "realistic" conditions to end the war, which she suggests could involve halting fighting along the current frontline. This would imply that the four Ukrainian regions illegally annexed by Putin more than two years ago, such as Zaporizhzhia, would remain partially controlled by Kyiv.
Russian hardliners, known as the "Z" bloggers, are outraged by such "defeatism." In his social media post, Trump framed his threat of tariffs and tightened sanctions in terms of "love" for the Russian people and emphasized his respect for Soviet losses in World War II - a nearly sacred topic for Putin. However, Trump grossly exaggerated the numbers and seemed to confuse the USSR with Russia alone, overlooking the millions of Ukrainians and other Soviet citizens who perished.
That said, Trump, who once claimed to "understand" Russia's concerns about Ukraine joining NATO - which Kyiv sees as tantamount to saying Putin was provoked - appears to be shifting his tone. Trump's stance carries weight. However, after eleven years of conflict with Russia and a history of flawed peace deals, Ukrainians are hesitant to harbor too much optimism.
