As the Valentine's Day four-day weekend unfolds, moviegoers are being wooed by none other than Marvel Studios' "Captain America: Brave New World" and Sony/StudioCanal's charming "Paddington in Peru." However, this weekend also marks Presidents' Day, making "Captain America" an apt choice for patriotic spirits. On Monday, with nearly a quarter of K-12 schools closed, "Paddington in Peru" is poised to gain some momentum too.
The highly anticipated "Captain America: Brave New World," budgeted at $180 million, follows the events of the Disney+/Marvel series "The Falcon and the Winter Soldier," where Anthony Mackie's Sam Wilson assumes the mantle left by Steve Rogers. This installment promises to be a grounded political thriller akin to 2014's "Captain America: Winter Soldier," which opened to $95 million in the U.S. over three days. Expectations are high for a domestic debut of $80 million over three days, climbing to $94 million over four, with a global kickoff of $190 million across all territories, including China, on the same day.
After facing production halts due to strikes, "Brave New World" has finally made it to the big screen. Initially slated for a summer 2024 release on May 3, the film directed by Julius Onah (The Cloverfield Paradox) was rescheduled to July 26, 2025, before landing on this weekend. While there were reshoots, they were par for the course for any Marvel Cinematic Universe movie.
Currently, presales for "Captain America: Brave New World" are trailing behind 2023's "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" ($106.1 million) by 10%-15% but are 40% ahead of 2021's "Eternals" ($71.2 million). By Friday, advance ticket sales are projected to reach $20 million. Previews in the U.S. will commence at 2 p.m. on Thursday, featuring a star-studded cast including Harrison Ford, Danny Ramirez, Tim Blake Nelson, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, and Giancarlo Esposito. With a total of 4,100 theaters booked, including all premium large-format screens and Imax, "Captain America" is gearing up to appeal to both guys and families with boys.
"Brave New World" will kick off its international rollout on Wednesday in major markets such as France, Korea, and Italy. On Thursday, it will significantly expand to Germany, Brazil, Australia, and Mexico. By Friday, the UK, China, Spain, and Japan will join the fray. International expectations hover around $110 million, with China contributing about $20 million. However, this market remains highly unpredictable, not solely due to the general decline in studio film appeal over the past few years.
Instead, China is witnessing an unprecedented phenomenon, as the locally produced sequel "Ne Zha 2" continues to enjoy resounding success. Just two weeks after its release, this animated masterpiece has already amassed over $1.2 billion at the box office, cementing its status as the fifth highest-grossing animated film of all time globally. Since its January 29 debut, "Ne Zha 2" has shown no signs of slowing down, with audiences flocking to theaters in droves, even amidst the allure of the latest Marvel offerings.
When comparing overseas Marvel character movies based on current exchange rates, we find titles like "Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania," which bowed to $114 million during the same weekend in 2023. Other notable entries include 2016's "Doctor Strange" with $140 million (a significant portion of which came from China), 2014's "Guardians of the Galaxy" at $95 million, and "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" with $111 million. Additionally, 2013's "Thor: The Dark World" garnered $112 million.
As for promotional endeavors, talent recently participated in photocalls in London and Rome, with Mackie attending Brazil's D23 expo in November. Tonight marks the Hollywood premiere of "Brave New World," which, as of yet, lacks a Rotten Tomatoes critics score. However, we've heard that exhibitors are pleased with the film.
It's worth noting that, unlike its domestic release on Peacock, Universal is opting for a theatrical rollout for "Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy" overseas, arriving just in time for Valentine's Day. The release begins on Wednesday, setting up some healthy counterprogramming against "Brave New World" as Renée Zellweger's fourth installment appeals to a female audience. In total, 70 markets (83% of international) will receive the film this frame, including the UK, Australia, Spain, the Netherlands, and Mexico. France will also see a release via Studiocanal.
Star-studded premieres have been held in major cities such as London, Sydney, Rome, and Amsterdam, with anticipation running high. It's possible that "Bridget Jones" could edge out "Captain America" in some debut markets.
Sony, meanwhile, has StudioCanal's $90 million threequel "Paddington in Peru" in select territories. The film has already racked up $104 million internationally, with $44.7 million coming from its native UK. (Sony's offshore territories on the Dougal Wilson-directed film account for $19 million.) Targeting moms with young girls, "Paddington in Peru" is poised for a four-day start of $15 million to $17 million. The previous installment, "Paddington 2," opened over MLK Weekend 2018 after Warner Bros. saved the film from the Weinstein Co. bankruptcy, bowing to $15 million over the four-day holiday.
Originally slated to open during this past MLK weekend, Sony pushed "Paddington in Peru" to this weekend to avoid competition from family films like "Wicked," "Moana 2," "Mufasa: The Lion King," and "Sonic the Hedgehog 3." Now, the threequel has a clear runway until the next family film arrives – Disney's "Snow White" on March 21.
"Paddington in Peru" bowed in the UK on November 8 to $12.4 million, marking the biggest UK opening for a British film since 2021. This was the ideal date for StudioCanal in that market, ahead of "Wicked" and "Moana 2." It was also the best opening for a StudioCanal movie in the UK. For Sony, Presidents' Day weekend was the prime frame for "Paddington."
Previews begin at 2 p.m. on Thursday at approximately 3,000 sites, expanding to 3,700 locations by Friday. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are stellar, with a 93% certified fresh rating.
