The highly anticipated Marvel Studios' sole offering of 2024, "Deadpool & Wolverine," is mere three weeks away from its grand premiere. As the countdown intensifies, predictions about the film's financial prospects are becoming increasingly precise. While it's still shaping up to be a smash hit for Marvel, the estimated earnings seem to have dipped from the lofty figures anticipated earlier.
According to THR, "Deadpool & Wolverine" is tracking between $160 million and $165 million at the domestic box office. If these projections hold true, the R-rated superhero flick is poised to deliver the biggest weekend haul of 2024 so far, which is quite impressive. However, it's a significant drop from the buzz surrounding the film a few weeks back, when hopes of surpassing $200 million were high.
The lingering question now is: can "D&W" achieve the coveted $1 billion mark worldwide, despite its estimated $165 million opening? The truth is, it's a tall order. Marvel's recent track record, barring the exceptional "Spider-Man: No Way Home," has been uneven at best. Take "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" for instance, which opened with $187 million (significantly above "D&W"'s tracking) yet fell short of the billion-dollar mark, ending its theatrical run at $955 million. And let's not forget that "Multiverse of Madness" was a PG-13 film, whereas "Deadpool 3" boasts an uncompromising R-rating.
That R-rating is indeed the Achilles' heel for "Deadpool & Wolverine." Historically, only one R-rated film, "Joker," has managed to cross the billion-dollar threshold. Even the previous "Deadpool" installments, which were beloved by fans and critics alike, only raked in $783 million and $735 million respectively. This means "Deadpool & Wolverine" would have to outperform its predecessors by a significant margin and replicate a feat achieved only once before.
Moreover, we are in a vastly different box office landscape than when "Joker" reigned supreme. Despite the allure of two beloved characters finally teaming up on the big screen, coupled with rumors of secret cameos and intrigue galore, the R-rating poses a formidable challenge. Can "Deadpool & Wolverine" defy expectations and shatter the billion-dollar ceiling? That remains to be seen.
