The cinematic landscape is brimming with anticipation as two of Hollywood's biggest fantasy heroes prepare for a showdown on the same release date: December 18th. Warner Bros.' and Legendary's Dune: Part Three and Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Doomsday have been vying for the same date for months, but the recent drop of the Dune movie's poster solidified the stand-off.
Theater chains are groan-worthy, as both films are highly anticipated and will likely be competing for the same audience at a time when theaters are struggling to fill seats. It's a clash of titans that doesn't make sense, especially after the past few years of cinema's challenges.
While Barbie and Oppenheimer faced off in July 2023 to create the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon, these two epic fantasy franchise sequels have a significant overlap in their male-skewing audience. Dune: Part Two skewed heavily male on its opening weekend at 68%, with many ticket buyers over the age of 25, while Avengers: Endgame saw a gender split of 60% male and 40% female with Millennials and Gen Zers making up the majority of the audience.
The issue isn't just about potential ticket sales being affected by the presence of the other film. There's also the issue of other films in the marketplace at the same time, like Ice Age 6, Robert Eggers' Werewulf, and Jumanji 3, plus likely some indie efforts. "It will be especially bad for specialty distributors because everybody's going to free up every screen they have for those two films," says an exhibitor.
For Dune and Avengers, however, there is another big issue: Imax screens. Dune has secured Imax screens for three weeks of exclusivity, which is a significant draw given director Denis Villeneuve's level of sci-fi spectacle and that the film was partially filmed using Imax cameras. But Disney is leaving money on the table by not having Imax screens available, as one exhibitor notes, "Doomsday not getting the PLF is insane. It's free money."
The week before Christmas is considered a highly coveted corridor as moviegoing tends to remain high over the holidays going into the new year. It's also considered the window that can most easily withstand two tentpole movies going head to head. In pre-pandemic times, six, eight, or even 10 movies of different sizes could prosper during the holidays. That's still the case, although the overall number of releases may have decreased.
One element that creates some urgency is the matter of spoilers. Marvel fans generally like to see major new releases quickly to avoid online spoilers. The first two Dune films were faithful to Frank Herbert's first well-known Dune novel, but the teaser trailer suggests Part Three is more loosely based on Herbert's lesser-known Dune Messiah and likely contains plenty of surprises that fans won't want spoiled.
So, how did this showdown get set up? Dune claimed the coveted ground first, setting its date back in 2024. The next Avengers movie (then called The Kang Dynasty) was originally planned for May 2025 but moved its date twice with creative changes, including the Russo Bros. boarding Doomsday and Secret Wars and moving away from Jonathan Majors' Kang. Marvel even launched a countdown clock to timed to the Dec. 18 date.
Both films are expected to be big box office draws, but while the Marvel brand has stumbled lately when judged against its past success, the return of the Avengers brand with some of the franchise's most popular actors is expected to come out on top (Dune: Part Two made $750 million, Avengers: Endgame made $2.8 billion).
It's a bit wasteful to have two such highly anticipated films competing for the same release date, like Immortan Joe blasting a massive 10-second waterfall that soaks into the sand in Mad Max: Fury Road. When Doomsday star Robert Downey Jr. and Chalamet were at an event in January, Downey joked about the rivalry: "We both have films opening on Dec 18, and we decided to coin it — we're thinking 'Dunesday.' We'll see if we're still friends by then."
