A significant upset has shaken up the Oscar odds for Best Actress on Gold Derby: Demi Moore, the mesmerizing star of "The Substance," has stormed into our prestigious top five rankings for the very first time. Coralie Fargeat's chilling body-horror masterpiece, "The Substance," entered the Oscar fray as a dark horse, only gaining substantial momentum in the recent couple of months.
Moore's bid for Best Actress isn't the only accolade "The Substance" is contention for; the film has also soared into Gold Derby's top 10 for Best Picture and cracked the top five for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. Furthermore, it's predicted to clinch the victory for Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Moore, who received an Emmy nomination for "If These Walls Could Talk" (1997), is still awaiting her Academy Award recognition. However, her portrayal of Elisabeth Sparkle, an aging movie star who undertakes drastic measures to reclaim her youth, could be the role that finally earns her a nod from the prestigious ceremony.
The actress already garnered her third Golden Globe nomination for "The Substance" (her previous nods were for "If These Walls Could Talk" and "Ghost"), as well as recognition from the Critics' Choice Awards, Satellite Awards, and Independent Spirit Awards.
In the Best Actress Oscar race, Mikey Madison ("Anora") currently leads with odds of 17/5, followed by Karla Sofía Gascon ("Emilia Pérez") at 9/2, Cynthia Erivo ("Wicked") at 6/1, Angelina Jolie ("Maria") tied at 6/1, and Moore trailing closely at 19/2. Our top 10 is rounded out by Marianne Jean-Baptiste ("Hard Truths"), Nicole Kidman ("Babygirl"), Fernanda Torres ("I’m Still Here"), Saoirse Ronan ("The Outrun"), and June Squibb ("Thelma").
What has sparked an astronomical leap in "The Substance's" Oscar prospects? Gold Derby's Features Editor, Ray Richmond, recently ventured a theory: "This darkly humorous satire, delving into beauty norms, the aging process, and their intricate ties to the entertainment industry, aims to both disgust and enlighten its audience. In 2024, it has cut through the cultural dialogue in a manner seldom witnessed among films outside Hollywood's mainstream."
Among Gold Derby's panel of 35 Oscar experts from prestigious media outlets, an impressive 14 have included Moore in their personal Best Actress rankings. These include Brian Truitt of USA Today, Christopher Rosen of Gold Derby, Cole Jaeger of The Oscar Expert, Eric Deggans of NPR, Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist, Jazz Tangcay of Variety, Joyce Eng of Gold Derby, Kevin Polowy of CBR, Mark Johnson of The Contending, Perri Nemiroff of Collider, Peter Travers of ABC, Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter, Scott Mantz of KTLA-TV, and Shawn Edwards of WDAF-TV Fox. Furthermore, five of our staff editors are confident that Moore will secure a nomination at the 97th Academy Awards, as are 14 out of our top 24 users—those who excelled in predicting last year's Oscar nominations.
The Academy Award nominations will be unveiled on January 17, 2025, with the glittering ceremony set to take place on Sunday, March 2, on ABC.
