Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni have narrowly avoided a high-stakes legal battle with the surprise settlement of Lively's sexual harassment suit against him earlier this week. However, even with the threat of a trial and the potential for legal and punitive damages averted, the actress and actor-director now face a different kind of trial - that of rebuilding their Hollywood careers.
"They're both in jail," says a high-ranking studio executive, a sentiment echoed by many agents, producers, studio executives, and casting directors informally surveyed by The Hollywood Reporter about the duo's future in the industry. It's worth noting that these insights didn't diminish their talent, evident in their body of work, but rather assessed the damage they've suffered from a protracted legal and public relations fight where pyrrhic victories were the best outcomes.
Lively led and produced 2024's It Ends With Us, a drama that Baldoni directed, produced, and also starred in. The movie was a financial success, grossing $351 million globally on a budget of $25 million. The conflict between the two wasn't over profits or credits but rather the behind-the-scenes machinations surrounding the movie, including accusations of sexual harassment and smear campaigns, with both sides filing lawsuits and counter-suits.
"Who wants to work with people that go this far?" says the high-ranking studio executive. Casting director Matthew Barry, known for such features as The Notebook and Rush Hour, agrees: "They're both in for a tough time." Barry points out that negative headlines surrounding their contentious split led to a lengthy hiatus from studio work for Johnny Depp and Amber Heard, although the former stars in Paramount's forthcoming Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol, marking his first major studio film since 2018.
Most sources THR surveyed agree that a significant portion of Hollywood will be hesitant to work with Lively and Baldoni, although most concede that Lively will have an easier comeback. Many believe that Lively should take a break from the public eye and "be thoughtful about what part she chooses next," says another executive who has worked with controversy-mired talent before. "If I were her, I would do a villain role and lean into the baggage," quips one producer.
Regardless of any comeback, Lively's brand has taken a hit. One studio exec believes the actress could have garnered $12 million paydays post It Ends With Us. "Today, she's worth $3 million," this person says. That estimation aligns with court filings where Lively estimated the reputational fallout as a result of the alleged smear campaign to have cost her over $100 million. And she noted she was on track to secure roles in movies that would have included paydays between $10 million to $15 million each.
Most agree that Baldoni, meanwhile, faces a tougher road back. "The allegations of an unsafe set, it's hard to imagine he could cast a movie," says one of the studio executives. One casting director predicts that rather than directing, Baldoni could return to his roots as a TV player, where he came up as a romantic interest on The CW's Jane the Virgin. This person doesn't believe he will direct any time soon.
Another casting director, Jen Rudin, believes that Baldoni will work again but that being associated with running a contentious set could present a mark against him at least in the short term. "We're at risk with anybody that we hire for anything," says Rudlin, author of HarperCollins' Confessions of a Casting Director. She adds about her general hiring philosophy: "I just want to work with great people, on and off set. Now more than ever, we really need to just be good, kind human beings to each other."
Still, Baldoni's return path may be eased thanks to his company Wayfarer, which has the backing of billionaire Steve Sarowitz, meaning perhaps he could self-finance his own movies. "He could bring his own career back but no one will hire him right now," says a studio executive. And one agent notes that Hollywood is harder on women than men in these situations, pointing to Depp's return in Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol after his acrimonious divorce from Heard. "You don't ever hear Amber's name when people discuss that movie," this agent notes. "It's easier for men."
Then there is the Ryan Reynolds question. Reynolds, who is married to Lively, was named in Baldoni's now-dismissed countersuit and has hovered over the proceedings as he supported his partner. Along the way, his reputation has also taken a hit as collateral damage. Several sources say Apple hesitated in dating Ryan Reynolds' action comedy Mayday for several months before finally committing to a Sept. 4 date in early February. Reynolds, one of the highest-paid actors in town, could be staring down a pay cut for the immediate future although a new outing as Deadpool would be an asterisk. One agency partner notes that Reynolds could regain goodwill and credibility by doing something leaner and scrappier as his next movie rather than a big studio production. "He should do a Van Wilder movie for scale and regain his coolness," says the agency partner only half-jokingly.
